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                            • 道氏理论是什么?如何分析道氏理论的缺陷

                              发布时间: 2020-04-24 08:33百人斗牛牛下载:主页 > 股票知识 >

                                DAOSHILILUNSHISHENME?RUHEFENXIDAOSHILILUNDEQUEXIAN?

                                LILUNHEFANGFAGAISHU

                              百人斗牛牛下载  ZAIJISHUFENXILINGYU,DAOSHILILUNSHISUOYOUSHICHANGJISHUFENXI(Technical Analysis,BAOKUOBOLANGLILUN、JIANGENLILUNDENG)DEBIZU。JINGUANTAJINGCHANGYINWEI“FANYINGTAICHI”ERSHOUDAOPIPING,BINGQIEYOUSHIHAISHOUDAONEIXIEJUBUXIANGXINQIPANDINGDERENSHIDEJIFENG(YOUQISHIZAIXIONGSHIDEZAOQI),DANZHIYAODUIGUSHISHAOYOUJINGLIDERENDOUDUITAYOUSUOTINGWEN,BINGSHOUDAODADUOSHURENDEJINGZHONG。DANRENMENCONGWEIYISHIDAONEISHIWANQUANJIANDANDEJISHUXINGDE,NEIBUSHIGENJUSHENMEBIEDE,SHIGUSHIBENSHENDEXINGWEI(TONGCHANGYONGZHISHULAIBIAODA),ERBUSHIJIBENFENXI(Fundamental Analysis )RENSHISUOYIKAODESHANGYETONGJICAILIAO。

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                                DAOSHILILUNDEXINGCHENGJINGLILEJISHINIAN。1902NIAN,ZAICHAERSI·DAOQUSHIYIHOU,WEILIANMU·BIDE·HANMIERDUN(William Peter Hamilton)HELUOBOTE·LEIYA(Robert Rhea)JICHENGLEDAOSHILILUN,BINGZAIQIHOUYOUGUANGUSHIDEPINGLUNXIEZUOGUOCHENGZHONG,JIAYIZUZHIYUGUINAERCHENGWEIJINTIANWOMENSUOJIANDAODELILUN。TAMENSUOZHUDE《GUSHIQINGYUBIAO》《DAOSHILILUN》CHENGWEIHOURENYANJIUDAOSHILILUNDEJINGDIANZHUZUO。

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                                这是更为明显的不足。有时会由这样十分不节制的评论,“道氏理论是一个极为可靠的系统,因为它在每一个主要趋势中使交易者错过前三分之一阶段和后三分之一阶段,有的时候也没有任何中间的三分之一的阶段。”或者干脆就给出一个典型实例:1942年一轮主要牛市以工业指数92。92开始而以1946年212。5结束,总共涨了119.58点,但一个严格的道氏理论家不等到工业指数涨到125。88是不会买入的,也一定要等到价格跌至191。04时才会抛出,因而盈利最多也不过分65个点或者不超过总数的一半,这一典型事例无可辩驳。但通常对这一异议的回答就是:“去找出那么一个交易者,他在92。92(或距这一水平五个点以内)首次买进,然后在整轮牛市中一直数年持有100%的头寸,最终在212.50时卖出,或者距这一水平五个点以内”,读者可以试一试;实际上,他会发现,甚至很难找出一打人,他们干得像道氏理论那样出色。

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